Prediction of Marin Cilic vs Novak Djokovic at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai 10-03-25

• How do Novak Djokovic and Marin Cilic perform on their second serve? In recent form, Marin Cilic has a slight edge, winning 47.88% of points compared to Djokovic's 42.66%.
• In return games, Cilic also has a narrow advantage, winning 42.79% of second serve return points against Djokovic's 42.04%.
• Djokovic has a higher success rate on first serve returns, capturing 21.67% compared to Cilic’s 21.05%.
• Who is better at saving break points? Marin Cilic edges Djokovic, saving 59.72% of break points versus Djokovic’s 56.08%.
• Overall match performance in the past year favors Djokovic, with a 76.60% win rate compared to Cilic's 55.81%.
• What about their best surfaces? Djokovic excels on hard courts with an 86% win rate, whereas Cilic's best record is on grass, also at 86%.
• Djokovic has seen more success at higher-level events, particularly Grand Slams, with an 83.33% win rate, while Cilic’s primary successes have been in ITF/Challenger tournaments.
• Their head-to-head record is dominated by Djokovic, leading 19-2 in wins. He has also won 45 of the 56 sets they’ve played.
• The last match between them was won by Djokovic in straight sets on indoor hard court.
• In deciding sets, Djokovic leads 4-1, suggesting stronger mental fortitude in crucial situations.
• Interestingly, Cilic has overtaken Djokovic in tiebreaks with a 5-3 advantage.
• Djokovic has consistently faced higher-ranked opponents over the past year, indicating potentially tougher competition.
• If this match extends to a deciding set, Djokovic's track record is stronger, having won 75% of such sets compared to Cilic’s 58%.

Editorial Prediction (October 2, 2025, UTC):

As Novak Djokovic and Marin Cilic prepare to face off, the stats provide a clear picture of their competitive landscape. Cilic has recently shown slightly better performance in second serve stats and break point resilience.

However, Djokovic's overall superior match win rate, particularly at top-level competitons, and his dominance in head-to-head encounters cannot be overlooked. His greater success on hard courts also plays in his favor in this matchup.

The historical data suggests that Djokovic is adept at winning high-pressure matches, especially in deciding sets. While Cilic has had success in tiebreaks, Djokovic's proven record of overcoming high-ranked players indicates a slight edge.

Given these factors, Novak Djokovic is predicted to be the likely winner in the upcoming match against Marin Cilic.